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한국금융연구원 분석
2022년 11월 이후 34개월간 수축···9월께 반등 1일 부산항 신선대부두에 컨테이너가 가득 쌓여 있는 모습.연합뉴스 
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한국 경제가 2022년 11월부터 34개월간 수축기를 겪다 올해 9월께부터 반등해 확장기로 접어들었다는 연구 결과가 나왔다.
김현태 한국금융연구원 연구위원은 21일‘최근 경기전환점 발생 여부 추정’보고서에서 이처럼 밝혔다.한국의 공식 경기 순환기는 국가데이터처가 발표하는 기준순환일에 따라 결정된다.하나의 순환기는 경기 저점에서 시작해 정점까지 이르는 확장기와 정점에서 저점까지 이어지는 수축기로 구성된다.
김 연구위원은 가장 최근에 발표된 기준순환일인 2020년 5월(제12순환기 시작점)을 기준으로 이후 경기 순환을 추정했다.이를 위해 머신러닝 알고리즘의 일종인 학습벡터양자화를 이용해 각종 경기동행지수와 심리지수 등을 분석했다.국가데이터처는 약 3년 정도 시차를 두고 공식 경기전환점을 발표하기 때문에 최신 경기 전환 상황을 추정하기 위해서는 빅데이터 기법으로 시뮬레이션해 볼 수밖에 없다.
분석결과 한국 경제는 2022년 11월 약 30개월 만에 정점을 찍어 확장기를 마쳤다.이후 시작한 수축기는 올해 9~10월께까지 이어진 것으로 보인다.경기 수축기가 34개월간 이어진 셈인데 이는 역대 최장 기록이었던 제 11순환기의 수축기(32개월)를 넘어서는 기록이다.확장기보다 수축기가 더 긴 것도 제8순환기(2001년 7월~2005년 4월) 이후 처음 있게 된다.
김 연구위원에 따르면 이번 분석에 사용된 머신러닝 알고리즘의 예측 정확도는 약 91.5%다.해당 알고리즘으로 과거 경기 확장기 및 수축기를 예측해 본 결과 실제 정점과 예측치와의 오차는 최대 6개월이었다.저점의 오차는 최대 4개월이었다.
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At-home biofeedback training
Muse is a research-grade EEG headband that acts as your personal meditation coach. Advanced sensors accurately measure your biosignals, while gentle audio cues deliver real-time feedback to bring your focus back to the present.
Train
During the session, Muse gives you real-time audio feedback based on your brain activity, teaching you how to master your mind and gain more control over your focus.
Track
Muse’s sensors passively measure your brain activity, heart rate, breath, and body movement. Refer back to this data whenever you want.
Transform
Studies have shown that over time this practice can improve your ability to focus, reduce stress, and enhance self-awareness.
lotto 6/45 korea
- Lack of focus & productivity
- Mind wandering / mental noise
- Interrupted sleep
- Anxious & restless thoughts
- Inability to wind down & relax
Life with Muse
- Better focus and clarity*
- Better able to handle stress*
- Feeling calmer and more relaxed*
- Better emotional regulation*
- 20% better sleep quality**
- Data-driven insights & progress in real time
*Based on Muse customer research conducted April 2021
**A 2021 study by Cambridge Brain Science, Western University, Hatch, and Interaxon that used Muse S sleep support technology showed a 20% improvement in Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, relative to controls wanting to improve their sleep.
Does Muse actually work?
MDs, neuroscientists, press & real users share their results
어느날 파워볼
The Muse S rocks!
This is without question the absolute coolest self-care item I have ever purchased. Even without the sleep tracking, I still feel this statement holds true. However, sleep tracking takes this product over the top. I highly recommend it to anybody who wants to improve their meditation practice, overall mindfulness, and sleep habits.
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I love this device
I love this device; I practice meditation with it everyday and also I do neurofeedback using Mindlyft. I am a day trader and really helps me in my daily routine.
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A Divine Choreography
I'm really excited to have a Muse S. I'm just getting acquainted with it, but it's been easy to learn and navigate so far. The support for sleeping couldn't have come at a better time, as my physician is getting patients off of sleep aids. I have yet to experience the Creativity programs but am anxious to do so because I've designated this year, 2023, to bolstering that part of my life. My connecting with Muse feels like a Divine Choreography -- perfect timing!
- Find focus in the noise: Learn the skill of focused-attention to boost mental acuity, find calm, and sharpen focus.
- Muse translates your mental activity into the guiding sounds of weather, teaching you how to rein in a wandering mind.
- Busy mind? Stormy weather. Calm mind? Peaceful weather.
- Relax your restlessness: Learn the art of stillness to support a grounded and centered practice.
- Let the sound of gentle wind chimes guide you as you adjust into a grounded and balanced position.
- The chimes will help build your awareness of your posture and body movement.
- Build confidence & control: Learn how to pace your breath to either energize or relax your mind and body.
- Discover how your breath can be a powerful tool to gain confidence, fight stress, or build energy.
- Guided ambient music responds to your breathing rhythm.
- Turn anxious into energized: Learn how to slow down your heart rate to optimize performance and reduce stress.
- Your ability to synchronize your heartbeat can help you find stillness and calm.
- Master the peaks for more consistent stamina, and to find stillness and calm.
Worth the hype.
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A sleep lab at home
Your Muse headband is more than just a brain training coach. At night, it guides you into a deep, restful sleep by responsive bedtime stories designed to help you shut off your busy mind and prepare you for bed.
Muse's sleep experiences use innovative smart-fade technology to cue your brain to sleep, and fall back asleep if you wake up through the night.
Plus, it tracks how deeply you sleep and the time you spend in different sleep stages and positions, so you can use these insights to build strong sleep habits that last.
Master your mind with expert content
Start today by downloading the Muse app.
- 500+ expert-led guided meditations
- Dashboard view of progress and rewards
- At home sleep lap, with sleep score
- Courses and collections for specific life situations
